5406 Highway 158 · June Lake, CA 93529

$825,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,957 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1984 0.30 ac lot $422/sqft · at area comps Est $828k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set along the banks of Reversed Creek, this inviting June Lake property captures the essence of mountain living, where the gentle sound of flowing water and a backdrop of pines and tamaracks create a peaceful, private setting. The 1,957 square foot home offers a flexible and comfortable layout with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and an additional bonus room ideal for an office, music room or library. Expansive decking on three sides extends the living space outdoors, providing multiple areas to relax, entertain, and take in the natural surroundings. The lower level adds versatility with a studio ADU, separate laundry, and a dedicated workshop area. The property also features ample parking a

Key facts

• Creekside living
• Reversed creek
• Studio adu

Tags

• REVERSED CREEK
• EXPANSIVE DECKING
• STUDIO ADU
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP AREA
• COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY SYSTEM
• CREEKSIDE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: For sale
• HOA & community: Gutters noted as a community feature

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Propane available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Three stories; Basement
• Construction: Composition roof; Basement foundation; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Open deck; Porch; Guest house attached; Trees on lot; Creek on property; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes bedrooms (basement present)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Additional living quarters; Ceiling fan(s); Smart home features; Window treatments; Double-pane windows; Window coverings; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer and dryer included; Laundry room on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $825k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $724k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $588k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $588k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#639 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Eastern Sierra Unified (rural): math 33% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #626 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Antelope Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 121 students, 49% FRL); Coleville High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 64 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Mono County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mono County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($800k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $475k; list at $825k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $587,852 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $827,515
• List price: $825,000
• Delta: -0.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-170,332
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-196,091
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93529

• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$478 /mo · $5,738/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,234
• Net cashflow: $-572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,603

Max offer price $723,938

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-339	+0% $-572	+5% $-806	+10% $-1,039
Rent	-10% $-1,036	-5% $-804	+0% $-572	+5% $-340	+10% $-108
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-362	base $-572	+0.5pp $-786	+1.0pp $-1,003

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $825,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $825,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $825,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $825,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $825,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $825,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $825,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $825,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $825,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $825,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $825,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $825,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $825,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $825,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $825,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $825,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $825,000 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $825,000 Active 1191-char remark
19. 2026-03-04
    historical
20. 2025-08-05
    price $825,000
21. 2025-06-05
    price $850,000
22. 2025-06-04
    status Price Change
23. 2025-05-31
    historical
24. 2024-12-06
    listed $875,000 Active
25. 2024-11-01
    historical
26. 2024-07-29
    price $920,000
27. 2024-05-30
    price $940,000
28. 2024-03-13
    listed $975,000 Active
29. 2024-02-26
    historical
30. 2023-08-15
    listed $975,000 Active
31. 2017-05-08
    soldstatus $475,000
32. 2017-05-08
    soldstatus $475,000
33. 2016-08-24
    listed $499,000
34. 2014-05-15
    listed $499,950
35. 2008-12-01
    soldstatus $550,000
36. 2008-12-01
    soldstatus $550,000
37. 2008-04-21
    listed $550,000
38. 2007-10-04
    listed $1,100,000
39. 1999-12-01
    soldstatus $127,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,738 · $478/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,270 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 12 d/yr ≥72°F today · 34 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$5,738
• − Insurance: −$4,939
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,643
• − Management: −$5,643
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable loss: −$21,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,192
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Sierra Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611870
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,977
• Composite: 39.44/100
• National rank: #8119
• State rank: #626 of 1400 in CA

Livability — June Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #20103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: June Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 209

Population outlook (Mono County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,077 people
• By 2030: 12,478 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 11,119 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 9,769 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 6,861 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,762 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Native American 40%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 10%
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Mono

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.2) · D 58.1% · R 37.8% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 20.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.2 2020: D+22.3 2016: D+11.9 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.67%
• Current HPI: 184.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+547.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $825,000 MLBOR
• 2026-03-04 Delisted — MLBOR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $825,000 MLBOR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $850,000 MLBOR
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — MLBOR
• 2025-05-31 Delisted — MLBOR
• 2024-12-06 Listed $875,000 MLBOR
• 2024-11-01 Delisted — MLBOR
• 2024-07-29 Price Changed $920,000 MLBOR
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $940,000 MLBOR
• 2024-03-13 Listed $975,000 MLBOR
• 2024-02-26 Delisted — MLBOR
• 2023-08-15 Listed $975,000 MLBOR
• 2017-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $475,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-08 Sold (MLS) $475,000 MLBOR
• 2016-08-24 Listed $499,000 MLBOR
• 2014-05-15 Listed $499,950 MLBOR
• 2008-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-01 Sold (MLS) $550,000 MLBOR
• 2008-04-21 Listed $550,000 MLBOR
• 2007-10-04 Listed $1,100,000 MLBOR
• 1999-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,738 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.