15825 B St

Organ, NM 88052

$125,000D

1 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,742 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Pending · 591 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-50/mo
• Annual: $-597/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-597/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 591 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#290 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 591 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.