303 Pheasant Run

Arlington Heights, PA 18302

$375,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,090 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$832
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-398/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-398/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (6.7% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $350k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.