303 Pheasant Run · Arlington Heights, PA 18302

$375,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2003 1.02 ac lot Est $359k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HIGHEST & BEST Offers are DUE on Tuesday, May 12th! FIRST TIME EVER BEING OFFERED, this BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED 3bd/2.5ba Colonial sits on OVER an acre in a PEACEFUL LOCATION w/ no HOA, offering privacy while still being close to everything you need. Conveniently located near shopping centers, restaurants, schools, hospitals, major highways, & popular Pocono attractions like Camelback, Kalahari, & Mt Airy Casino, this home offers the perfect balance of comfort & convenience. With OVER 2000sqft of living space, a full basement, walk-up attic, & a 2-car garage, there is plenty of room to grow. Hardwood flooring & tile flow throughout, adding warmth & time

Key facts

• Peaceful location
• Full basement
• Ss appliances

Tags

• PEACEFUL LOCATION
• NO HOA
• FULL BASEMENT
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• SS APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1 (residential); Lot: level, cleared front and back yard; public maintained paved county road frontage; approximately 1.02 acres

Exterior

• Parking: 6 total parking spaces; 2-car garage; 4 open (off-street) spaces; Driveway, paved; garage faces side
• Security: Carbon monoxide detectors; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Mound septic / septic tank; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Phone and cable connected; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family house; Faces south; 4 stories; No common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding frame construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built details: full unfinished concrete basement
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Deck; Sliding doors; Storm doors; Spa / hot tub (bath feature); Satellite dish; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven (electric); Range (electric); Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Stainless steel appliances; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Details not specified
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Storage; Insulated windows; Unfurnished; Fireplace in family room (propane)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on main level/in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-398/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#317 in PA, #2,815 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, employment D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $350,000 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,480
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Pheasant Run	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,090 (0%)	0mo	$385,300	$184	100
2043 Gorden Ridge Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,194 (+5%)	10mo	$425,000	$194	74
258 Deer Path	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+0%)	12mo	$230,000	$110	62
1037 Bear Swamp Rd	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,150 (+3%)	20mo	$369,500	$172	60
438 Rolling Hill Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,165 (+4%)	23mo	$510,000	$236	53
188 Deer Path	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,845 (-12%)	22mo	$293,000	$159	33
84 Lenape Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,360 (+13%)	8mo	$320,000	$136	32
361 Hallowood Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,348 (+12%)	16mo	$370,000	$158	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-62,701
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-56,592
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18302

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$675 /mo · $8,105/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,542

Max offer price $369,134

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Jennifer Ln East Stroudsburg, PA	4.0	2.5	2200	$3,500	$1.59	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $375,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,105 · $675/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,105 · $675/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$8,105
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$6,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $1,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arlington Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #2815

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,593

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.00%
• Current HPI: 157.9833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $375,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,105 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.