26 First St

Tupper Lake, NY 12986

$89,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $163/mo
• Annual: $1,959/yr
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#661 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Tupper Lake Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #561 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $89k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.8% in Tupper Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.