26 First St · Tupper Lake, NY 12986

$89,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This warm and inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers simple, comfortable living in a location that makes everyday life easy. Step inside to a bright and welcoming living space filled with natural light, flowing seamlessly into a functional kitchen and dining area & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; perfect for gathering, everyday meals, or slow mornings at home. The home features updated flooring throughout, adding a clean and cohesive feel to every room. Each bedroom includes its own closet, providing practical storage and flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The full bathroom has been thoughtfully updated with a modern rustic touch, creating a space that feels both fresh an

Key facts

• Bright living space
• Functional kitchen
• Each bedroom closet

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• UPDATED FLOORING
• EACH BEDROOM CLOSET
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.8% in Tupper Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#661 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Tupper Lake Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #561 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $89k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $35,112
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Rounds Ave Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	798 (-14%)	17mo	$30,000	$38	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $25,688
• Equity at exit: $44,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $71,511
• Equity at exit: $73,169

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12986

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $188	+0% $163	+5% $138	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $124	+0% $163	+5% $202	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $186	base $163	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $89,000 Under Contract 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $89,000 Active 1264-char remark
14. 2013-05-29
    soldstatus $32,800
15. 2009-08-24
    soldstatus $30,000
16. 2000-09-05
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$61/yr (+$5/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$139
• After-tax cash flow: $1,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tupper Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629160
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,543
• Composite: 29.18/100
• National rank: #6572
• State rank: #561 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tupper Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #661
• US rank: #12343

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tupper Lake, NY
• City population: 5,304
• Population (ZIP): 5,304

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Current HPI: 281.1979
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+256.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $89,000 FSBO.com
• 2013-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $32,800 Public Records
• 2009-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.