4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,758 sqft ·
Built 1895
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,379/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$197
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$290
Net cashflow
$369/mo
Annual
$4,425/yr
Cap rate
10.72%
Cash-on-cash
15.82%
DSCR
1.70
1% rule
1.38%
Cash to close
$27,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment D.
Orangeville CUSD 203 (rural): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #346 of 919 in IL (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Stephenson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Stephenson County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6CM2NW1JWY7SF8
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29