707 12th St

Shallowater, TX 79363

$314,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,863 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$451
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-845/mo
• Annual: $-10,143/yr
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-845 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (47.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (49.5% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (49.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater Int (math 71% / reading 65%, grade B+, #181 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 387 students, 39% FRL); Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $315k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.