707 12th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$314,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,863 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1961 0.52 ac lot $169/sqft · 11% below area Est $378k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss the chance to own this rare beauty in a coveted area! Situated on a half-acre lot in the heart of Shallowater, this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and outdoor living. Inside, you will find just under 2000 square feet of well-maintained living space with updated flooring, a newer roof, and major system upgrades including a new sewer line, updated gas line, whole-home air purification system, and water filtration with softener. Step outside to an entertainer's dream featuring a 20 by 24 covered patio, a heated above-ground pool with a custom deck, and pre-installed plumbing for a future outdoor kitchen and fire pit. The property also includes a foam-insulated storage shed with a concrete floor and an additional side lot, offering added versatility for homesteading, an oversized backyard, or even a shop! Homes with this combination of space, updates, and outdoor amenities are rarely available in this area. Schedule your showing TODAY! Welcome home!

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Newer roof
• Updated gas line

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW SEWER LINE
• UPDATED GAS LINE
• WATER FILTRATION WITH SOFTENER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-845 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (47.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (49.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (49.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater Int (math 71% / reading 65%, grade B+, #181 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 387 students, 39% FRL); Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $315k implies a 334% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,074 (49.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,019
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -16.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $117,646
• Equity at exit: $283,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $388,742
• Equity at exit: $611,781

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,832/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $165,582

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-667	-5% $-756	+0% $-845	+5% $-934	+10% $-1,024
Rent	-10% $-971	-5% $-908	+0% $-845	+5% $-782	+10% $-720
Rate	-1.0pp $-687	-0.5pp $-765	base $-845	+0.5pp $-927	+1.0pp $-1,010

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 15th St Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	15d	1	0.69mi
1408 15th St Unit B Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	15d	1	0.70mi
1403 17th St Unit 1 Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	15d	1	0.73mi
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	15d	1	0.74mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	23d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $314,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $314,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $314,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $314,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,900 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,900 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $314,900 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $314,900 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Don't miss the chance to own this rare beauty in a coveted area! Situated on a half-acre lot in the heart of Shallowater, this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and outdoor living. Inside, you will find just under 2000 square feet of well-maintained living space with updated flooring, a newer roof, and major system upgrades including a new sewer line, updated gas line, whole-home air purification system, and water filtration with softener. Step outside to an entertainer's dream featuring a 20 by 24 covered patio, a heated above-ground pool with a custom deck, and pre-installed plumbing for a future outdoor kitchen and fire pit. The property also includes a foam-insulated storage shed with a concrete floor and an additional side lot, offering added versatility for homesteading, an oversized backyard, or even a shop! Homes with this combination of space, updates, and outdoor amenities are rarely available in this area. Schedule your showing TODAY! Welcome home!

19. 2026-04-09
    listed $319,900 Active 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    Don't miss the chance to own this rare beauty in a coveted area! Situated on a half-acre lot in the heart of Shallowater, this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and outdoor living. Inside, you will find just under 2000 square feet of well-maintained living space with updated flooring, a newer roof, and major system upgrades including a new sewer line, updated gas line, whole-home air purification system, and water filtration with softener. Step outside to an entertainer's dream featuring a 20 by 24 covered patio, a heated above-ground pool with a custom deck, and pre-installed plumbing for a future outdoor kitchen and fire pit. The property also includes a foam-insulated storage shed with a concrete floor and an additional side lot, offering added versatility for homesteading, an oversized backyard, or even a shop! Homes with this combination of space, updates, and outdoor amenities are rarely available in this area. Schedule your showing TODAY! Welcome home!

20. 2019-05-06
    listed $172,500
21. 2018-05-07
    soldstatus
22. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus
23. 2013-09-24
    soldstatus
24. 2007-01-12
    soldstatus $72,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,832 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,763 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,930/yr (+$161/mo · 50.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$3,832
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$16,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,881
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+334.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $314,900 LARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $319,900 LARMLS
• 2019-05-06 Listed $172,500 LARMLS
• 2018-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,832 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.