1616 Cerro Crestado Dr NW

Los Lunas, NM 87031

$325,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$374
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-865/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-865/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Los Lunas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,576/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?