1616 Cerro Crestado Dr NW · Los Lunas, NM 87031

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 1997 10,454 sqft lot $187/sqft · at area comps Est $340k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Rv boat parking
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE ENSUITE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GATED BACKYARD ACCESS
• RV BOAT PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-865/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Los Lunas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#46 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,576/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,569 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,494
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -4.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1616 Cerro Crestado Dr NW	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,736 (0%)	0mo	$325,000	$187	100
1770 Cerro Crestado Dr NW	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-1%)	1mo	$343,000	$199	92
1592 Valle De Colores St NW	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+1%)	3mo	$395,000	$226	80
1724 Valle Vista Rd NW	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (-3%)	2mo	$325,000	$192	80
1630 Tierra Alta Ct NW	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,700 (-2%)	1mo	$333,000	$196	72
2009 Hermosa Ct NW	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,523 (-12%)	2mo	$290,000	$190	69
1706 Tesoro Loop NW	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+2%)	2mo	$400,000	$226	69
1436 Terrazas Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,581 (-9%)	3mo	$349,900	$221	67
1469 Calle Oeste NW	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (-8%)	1mo	$364,990	$228	62
1465 Calle Oeste NW	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-12%)	1mo	$344,990	$227	59
1481 Calle Oeste NW	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (-8%)	3mo	$354,990	$222	59
1473 Calle Oeste NW	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-12%)	3mo	$354,990	$234	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-43,688
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $17,812
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,857/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,667

Max offer price $312,272

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $20	+0% $-72	+5% $-164	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-174	+0% $-72	+5% $30	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $11	base $-72	+0.5pp $-156	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1748 Valle Vista Rd NW Los Lunas, NM	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,125	$1.26	18d	1	0.23mi
1400 Tierra Verde Loop NW Los Lunas, NM	3.0	3.0	1917	$3,600	$1.88	25d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

2. 2026-05-05
   status Active 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

3. 2026-05-05
   price $325,000 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

4. 2026-04-12
   status Pending 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

5. 2026-03-27
   price $335,000 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

6. 2026-02-05
   listed $345,000 Active 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Welcome home to this Sivage Thomas 1700 sq ft, 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence with an open floorplan which creates an easy flow for everyday living. The spacious kitchen shines with a breakfast bar, abundant cabinetry, and generous countertop space. The lovely primary bedroom features a private ensuite with a double vanity and walk-in shower. The oversized 3-car garage provides plenty of room for vehicles and storage plus a gated backyard access with space for RV/boat parking. Enjoy the enclosed backyard with a covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping and handy garden shed. Major upgrades include a new furnace and AC installed in 2022 and newer windows, adding peace of mind and energy efficiency. Conveniently located with quick freeway access, this home checks all the boxes!

7. 2019-01-11
   historical
8. 2019-01-11
   soldstatus
9. 2018-12-08
   status Pending
10. 2018-12-03
    listed $224,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,857 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,857 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,857
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,527
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,566
• After-tax cash flow: $702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — Los Lunas

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #12347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Lunas, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• City population: 47,514
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $325,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-12 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $335,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $345,000 Southwest MLS
• 2019-01-11 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2019-01-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-08 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2018-12-03 Listed $224,900 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,857 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.