298 Johnny Ave

Hudson, TX 75969

$124,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,695/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $476/mo
• Annual: $5,715/yr
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.34%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $554 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-310 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Central ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 633 students, 68% FRL); Central J H (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 440 students, 62% FRL); Central H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 385 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen countertops — worn appearance
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — dated appearance
• Minor: exterior siding — faded paint
• Minor: hardwood flooring — worn appearance
• Minor: interior walls — discoloration
• Minor: HVAC system — not recently serviced