298 Johnny Ave · Hudson, TX 75969

$124,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 1995 Average condition 0.82 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious . 82-acre lot in desirable Central ISD, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy country living with convenience. Built in 1995, this property provides a great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, privacy, and potential. With a functional layout and generous yard, there's room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, pets, or simply enjoying the East Texas surroundings. Priced at just $129,900, this property offers affordable living with easy access to Lufkin and surrounding areas. Tenant is month-to-month, so don't let that stop you from looking.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Generous yard
• Outdoor entertaining

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS YARD
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.0% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#791 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Central ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #294 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 633 students, 68% FRL); Central J H (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 440 students, 62% FRL); Central H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 385 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $554 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-310 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.34%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,253
• Equity at exit: $34,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $75,915
• Equity at exit: $40,528

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75969

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $519	+0% $476	+5% $433	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $342	-5% $409	+0% $476	+5% $543	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $508	base $476	+0.5pp $444	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $124,900 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $124,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $124,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    price $124,900 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious . 82-acre lot in desirable Central ISD, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy country living with convenience. Built in 1995, this property provides a great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, privacy, and potential. With a functional layout and generous yard, there's room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, pets, or simply enjoying the East Texas surroundings. Priced at just $129,900, this property offers affordable living with easy access to Lufkin and surrounding areas. Tenant is month-to-month, so don't let that stop you from looking.

11. 2026-02-23
    listed $129,900 Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious . 82-acre lot in desirable Central ISD, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy country living with convenience. Built in 1995, this property provides a great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, privacy, and potential. With a functional layout and generous yard, there's room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, pets, or simply enjoying the East Texas surroundings. Priced at just $129,900, this property offers affordable living with easy access to Lufkin and surrounding areas. Tenant is month-to-month, so don't let that stop you from looking.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $3,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$951
• After-tax cash flow: $4,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on a spacious lot in Central ISD requires cosmetic repairs and maintenance to enhance its curb appeal and functionality, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen countertops — worn appearance
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated appearance
• Minor exterior siding — faded paint
• Minor hardwood flooring — worn appearance
• Minor interior walls — discoloration
• Minor HVAC system — not recently serviced

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace worn kitchen countertops — improves kitchen functionality
• Rental service HVAC system — ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · faded paint	Minor	$500–3,000
hardwood flooring · worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC system · not recently serviced	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$3,000–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace worn kitchen countertops — improves kitchen functionality ↑
• Rental service HVAC system — ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813500
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,994
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4458
• State rank: #294 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #14441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,606

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Current HPI: 235.2344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $124,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $129,900 Deep East Texas MLS