416 Coyote Creek Ct

Abilene, TX 79602

$312,990D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,677/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax + insurance: −$522
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-583/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $87,637

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $313k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-583/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.