416 Coyote Creek Ct · Abilene, TX 79602

$312,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3,055 sqft lot $120/sqft · 6% above area Est $296k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21239405 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 2600 B1 - Jackson The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you’ll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom — ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The upper level also features a loft area for added living or workspace, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room.

Key facts

• 3,055 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $313k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-583/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $267,652 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,902
• List price: $312,990
• Delta: 5.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-39,625
• Equity at exit: $46,668

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $26,056
• Equity at exit: $27,062

Cash invested: $87,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$391 /mo · $4,695/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $305,964

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,248
• Closing costs: $9,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (918 chars)

   MLS# 21239405 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 2600 B1 - Jackson The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you’ll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom — ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The upper level also features a loft area for added living or workspace, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $312,990 918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (918 chars)

   MLS# 21239405 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 2600 B1 - Jackson The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you’ll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom — ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The upper level also features a loft area for added living or workspace, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room.

3. 2026-05-02
   status Active 918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (918 chars)

   MLS# 21239405 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 2600 B1 - Jackson The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you’ll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom — ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The upper level also features a loft area for added living or workspace, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room.

4. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (918 chars)

   MLS# 21239405 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 2600 B1 - Jackson The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you’ll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom — ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The upper level also features a loft area for added living or workspace, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room.

5. 2026-04-14
   listed $304,990 Active 918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (918 chars)

   MLS# 21239405 - Built by NHC - Aug 2026 completion! ~ Model 2600 B1 - Jackson The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you’ll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom — ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The upper level also features a loft area for added living or workspace, three additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,532
• − Property taxes: −$4,695
• − Insurance: −$1,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$9,105
• Taxable loss: −$5,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can attract more buyers.
• Resale Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with more durable or stylish options can attract more buyers.
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more renters and buyers.
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value, attracting more renters and buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring with more durable or stylish options can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more renters and buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value, attracting more renters and buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $312,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $304,990 NTREIS