317 Big Oak Cir

Madison, AL 35758

$325,999F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-533/mo
• Annual: $-6,398/yr
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $91,280

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $326k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-533 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (44.1% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Madison City (suburban): math 51% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #4 of 129 in AL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Midtown Elementary School (math 49% / reading 78%, grade B, #46 of 627 statewide, top 8%, 999 students, 26% FRL); Discovery Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #13 of 257 statewide, top 5%, 1,334 students, 25% FRL); Bob Jones High School (math 53% / reading 51%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 1,920 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $326k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.