3791 River Dr

Lilburn, GA 30044

$285,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,180/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,612/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knight Elementary School (math 53% / reading 53%, grade C, #215 of 1,228 statewide, top 18%, 869 students, 64% FRL); Trickum Middle School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 2,148 students, 52% FRL); Parkview High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 3,262 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $285k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Lilburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.