3791 River Dr · Lilburn, GA 30044

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1953 0.57 ac lot $183/sqft · 24% below area Est $374k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom home ideally located in a prime area with access to highly rated schools. This inviting property offers a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a spacious living area filled with natural light, well-sized bedrooms, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout. Situated in a highly convenient location, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, parks, and major highways-making commuting and daily errands effortless. Offering the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community, this home is a great opportunity for both investors and first-time homebuyers. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Spacious living area
• Natural light

Tags

• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity (110 volts); Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Three upstairs bedrooms; Other bedroom features
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: One brick fireplace; Bay window(s); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Lilburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knight Elementary School (math 53% / reading 53%, grade C, #215 of 1,228 statewide, top 18%, 869 students, 64% FRL); Trickum Middle School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 2,148 students, 52% FRL); Parkview High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #243 of 424 statewide, top 59%, 3,262 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $285k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,002 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,160
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -23.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Princeton Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+13%)	2mo	$385,000	$218	62
3670 Sugarbrook Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-6%)	3mo	$329,900	$224	54
361 Princeton Way	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+14%)	10mo	$415,000	$233	54
176 Resthaven Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+2%)	18mo	$350,000	$220	47
402 Princeton Way	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (+14%)	12mo	$330,000	$186	46
167 Lester Rd SW	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-13%)	5mo	$300,000	$221	45
3594 Vinyard Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+12%)	12mo	$380,000	$217	37
686 Ludlow Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-12%)	18mo	$320,000	$233	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-61,164
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-89,117
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30044

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,919/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,350

Max offer price $261,268

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-54	+0% $-134	+5% $-215	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-220	+0% $-134	+5% $-48	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-62	base $-134	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3876 Brookshire Pl Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,045	$1.14	26d	1	0.43mi
3886 Brookshire Pl Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,065	$1.15	26d	1	0.43mi
3748 Jackson Bluff Dr Lawrenceville, GA	4.0	2.5	1987	$2,600	$1.31	20d	1	0.78mi
3564 Manchester Dr Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.5	2000	$1,995	$1.00	14d	1	0.97mi
886 Killian Hill Rd SW Lilburn, GA	4.0	3.5	1767	$2,599	$1.47	24d	1	1.25mi
4412 Bryant Dr SW Lilburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	26d	1	1.27mi
798 Brownlee Ln Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,350	$1.28	19d	1	1.36mi
327 Cashes Ct Lilburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1790	$2,200	$1.23	45d	1	1.39mi
156 Bethesda Church Rd Lawrenceville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1183	$2,170	$1.83	0d	9	1.41mi
3497 Hidden Valley Cir Unit 1 Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	3.5	2000	$2,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.45mi
3597 Hidden Valley Cir Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	3.5	1979	$2,400	$1.21	26d	1	1.47mi
3498 Hidden Valley Cir Lawrenceville, GA	3.0	3.5	1742	$2,250	$1.29	0d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   listed $285,000 New 683-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom home ideally located in a prime area with access to highly rated schools. This inviting property offers a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a spacious living area filled with natural light, well-sized bedrooms, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout. Situated in a highly convenient location, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, parks, and major highways-making commuting and daily errands effortless. Offering the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community, this home is a great opportunity for both investors and first-time homebuyers. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

2. 2026-05-03
   listed $285,000 Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (683 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom home ideally located in a prime area with access to highly rated schools. This inviting property offers a comfortable and functional layout, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy a spacious living area filled with natural light, well-sized bedrooms, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout. Situated in a highly convenient location, you'll be just minutes from shopping, dining, parks, and major highways-making commuting and daily errands effortless. Offering the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community, this home is a great opportunity for both investors and first-time homebuyers. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

3. 2020-05-18
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 1992-08-31
   soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,919 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,919 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,919
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,093
• − Management: −$2,093
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $-22/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lilburn

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #5949

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 70,121
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 101,475
• Household income: $77,321
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3075.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 28% White 21% Asian 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 30% Vietnamese 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -304.00%
• Current HPI: 241.2788
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.78%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+955.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $285,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2020-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1992-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,919 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.