811 Cedar Ave

Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$49,900A

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,422/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $725/mo
• Annual: $8,697/yr
• Cap rate: 23.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.24%
• DSCR: 3.77
• 1% rule: 2.85%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harry F Abate Elementary School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,909 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 695 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $50k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of aging and potential leaks
• Major: exterior siding — Peeling paint and exposed siding
• Major: interior walls/paint — No photos, but poor exterior suggests interior may be in similar condition