811 Cedar Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$49,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1880 3,600 sqft lot $39/sqft · 48% below area Est $95k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 4-bedroom Niagara Falls property located in the City’s short-term rental area near the waterfront and many of the region’s most visited destinations. Situated on a residential street, this home presents a value-add opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers seeking a project in a location close to Niagara Falls State Park, the Aquarium of Niagara, Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino, and the Underground Railroad Heritage Center. Whether your plans include renovation for resale, long-term rental, or exploring short-term rental use, this property offers strong potential, subject to municipal requirements, permitting, and buyer due diligence. Sold as is.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 69 days

Tags

• SHORT-TERM RENTAL AREA
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• NEAR THE AQUARIUM OF NIAGARA
• NEAR SENECA NIAGARA RESORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,402/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $50k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.90%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,488
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -47.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (+2%)	4mo	$85,000	$65	76
1013 13th St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (+6%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	67
1322 Whitney Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-2%)	5mo	$80,500	$65	65
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (+10%)	4mo	$115,000	$82	62
1121 La Salle Ave	0.31mi	4/1.0	1,440 (+12%)	5mo	$72,000	$50	61
749 16th St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+3%)	4mo	$117,000	$89	60
1307 Michigan Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,330 (+4%)	4mo	$41,000	$31	53
668 Orchard Pkwy	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,446 (+13%)	6mo	$216,000	$149	52
627 13th St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	4mo	$110,000	$98	52
724 17th St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,179 (-8%)	4mo	$70,000	$59	50
1327 Willow Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,444 (+13%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	48
1512 Willow Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-10%)	0mo	$39,300	$34	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $79,798
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.3%
• Equity multiple: 16.60×
• Total profit: $217,937
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,390/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $737	-5% $723	+0% $709	+5% $695	+10% $681
Rent	-10% $598	-5% $654	+0% $709	+5% $764	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $734	-0.5pp $722	base $709	+0.5pp $696	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.13mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	4d	1	0.31mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	0.45mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	4d	1	0.46mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.62mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.64mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	18d	1	0.83mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.17mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	1.28mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	11d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $59,900 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4-bedroom Niagara Falls property located in the City’s short-term rental area near the waterfront and many of the region’s most visited destinations. Situated on a residential street, this home presents a value-add opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers seeking a project in a location close to Niagara Falls State Park, the Aquarium of Niagara, Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino, and the Underground Railroad Heritage Center. Whether your plans include renovation for resale, long-term rental, or exploring short-term rental use, this property offers strong potential, subject to municipal requirements, permitting, and buyer due diligence. Sold as is.

16. 2025-04-21
    historical
17. 2025-03-20
    listed $69,900 Active
18. 2024-09-30
    historical
19. 2024-06-11
    price $49,500
20. 2024-03-04
    listed $50,000 Active
21. 2007-02-13
    soldstatus $26,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,821
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,390
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,346
• − Management: −$1,346
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $8,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,978
• After-tax cash flow: $6,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+129.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $49,500 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2007-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $26,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,390 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.