811 Cedar Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$49,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1880 Fair condition 3,600 sqft lot $39/sqft · 49% below area Est $97k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 4-bedroom Niagara Falls property located in the City’s short-term rental area near the waterfront and many of the region’s most visited destinations. Situated on a residential street, this home presents a value-add opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers seeking a project in a location close to Niagara Falls State Park, the Aquarium of Niagara, Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino, and the Underground Railroad Heritage Center. Whether your plans include renovation for resale, long-term rental, or exploring short-term rental use, this property offers strong potential, subject to municipal requirements, permitting, and buyer due diligence.

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 111 days

Tags

• SHORT-TERM RENTAL AREA
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• NEAR THE AQUARIUM OF NIAGARA
• NEAR SENECA NIAGARA RESORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harry F Abate Elementary School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,909 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 695 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $50k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.24%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,122
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -48.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
743 Spruce Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (-3%)	0mo	$120,000	$96	88
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,302 (+2%)	6mo	$85,000	$65	75
1013 13th St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (+6%)	4mo	$97,000	$72	66
1322 Whitney Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-2%)	6mo	$80,500	$65	64
1146 Haeberle Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (+10%)	6mo	$115,000	$82	61
749 16th St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+3%)	6mo	$117,000	$89	58
1717 Willow Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,262 (-1%)	0mo	$95,000	$75	54
1307 Michigan Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,330 (+4%)	6mo	$41,000	$31	52
627 13th St	0.36mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	6mo	$110,000	$98	50
724 17th St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,179 (-8%)	5mo	$70,000	$59	49
1327 Willow Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,444 (+13%)	2mo	$40,000	$28	46
1512 Willow Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,148 (-10%)	2mo	$39,300	$34	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $80,902
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 16.79×
• Total profit: $220,663
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.4 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $98,000 ($75/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,390/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $739	+0% $725	+5% $711	+10% $696
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $669	+0% $725	+5% $781	+10% $837
Rate	-1.0pp $750	-0.5pp $737	base $725	+0.5pp $712	+1.0pp $699

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 Pine Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,395	$1.09	11d	1	0.11mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	93d	1	0.13mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	52d	1	0.31mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	72d	1	0.45mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	52d	1	0.46mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	72d	1	0.62mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	93d	1	0.64mi
562 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	19d	1	0.72mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	66d	1	0.83mi
2207 Linwood Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1545	$1,795	$1.16	19d	1	1.01mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	93d	1	1.17mi
456 27th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,500	$1.42	25d	1	1.25mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,375	$1.06	11d	1	1.28mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	46d	1	1.28mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	59d	1	1.34mi
3023 Livingston Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	41d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garageNo driveway
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic water available (not connected)Sewer available
• Home design: Two storiesExisting construction
• Construction: Fiber cement exteriorShingle roofStone foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lotNear public transitCity street frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: HardwoodVaries
• Bathrooms: One full bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details provided in remarks
• Interior features: Separate/formal living roomLiving/dining roomBathroom rough-inBedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $49,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $49,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   days on market $49,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $49,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $49,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $49,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $49,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-07-20
    days on market $49,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $49,900 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $49,900 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 88 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 86 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $49,900 Active 80 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 79 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 78 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $49,900 Active 77 DOM
32. 2026-06-25
    days on market $49,900 Active 75 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $49,900 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $59,900 Active 63 DOM
41. 2026-06-10
    days on market $59,900 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $59,900 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 58 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 52 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 51 DOM
49. 2026-04-10
    listed $59,900 Active 707-char remark
50. 2025-04-21
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,390 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,390
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $8,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,026
• After-tax cash flow: $6,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $32,000–$57,600 screening

This Niagara Falls property requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and siding, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of aging and potential leaks
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and exposed siding
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos, but poor exterior suggests interior may be in similar condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair roof — Fixing the roof can prevent further damage and increase property value ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — Recovering the siding will improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harry F Abate Elementary School F NY #1,909/2,108 Nat'l #31,434/41,679 Middle Gaskill Preparatory School F NY #702/729 Nat'l #12,486/14,009 High Niagara Falls High School A NY #409/1,100 Nat'l #817/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 204,149 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garageNo driveway
• Utilities: Electricity availablePublic water available (not connected)Sewer available
• Home design: Two storiesExisting construction
• Construction: Fiber cement exteriorShingle roofStone foundation
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lotNear public transitCity street frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: HardwoodVaries
• Bathrooms: One full bathroomOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details provided in remarks
• Interior features: Separate/formal living roomLiving/dining roomBathroom rough-inBedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

Price history

+91.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $49,500 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2007-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $26,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,390 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.