3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,204 sqft ·
Built 1976
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,425/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$310
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$509
Net cashflow
$85/mo
Annual
$1,015/yr
Cap rate
6.64%
Cash-on-cash
1.25%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.4% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $242k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Tolenas Academy of Music And Media (583 students, 61% FRL); Grange Middle (780 students, 73% FRL); Fairfield High (math 16% / reading 41%, grade F, #774 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,633 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 47% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9903% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6DBG3R4CR0JPWR
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29