4 Blitzen Ln

Shelton, WA 98584

$199,950D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,570/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-141/mo
• Annual: $-1,697/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $55,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (676 students, 68% FRL); Shelton High School (1,473 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 689 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.