4 Blitzen Ln · Shelton, WA 98584

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1990 Good condition $137/sqft · 43% below area Est $353k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks

Welcome to Christmas Village! This 55+ mobile home park is ideal for enjoying a peaceful lifestyle, while making new friends and participating in community activities. The spacious 3 bed, 2 bath home has been lovingly cared for and includes two living areas plus a dining room. The primary bedroom has an en-suite bathroom, as well as a large walk in closet. Relax on the back deck and take in the sounds of nature. Low maintenance landscaping leaves you time to enjoy your leisure activities. Just outside your front door is the community park, with a horseshoe pit and gazebo. The energy-efficient heat pump will keep you warm in the winter and cool in the summer.

Key facts

• Two living areas
• Dining room
• Back deck

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• DINING ROOM
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• BACK DECK
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (676 students, 68% FRL); Shelton High School (1,473 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 689 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,011 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,000
• List price: $199,950
• Delta: -43.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Dasher Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	16mo	$50,000	$35	75
2 Blitzen Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	10mo	$230,000	$142	73
12 Christmas Tree Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	12mo	$239,000	$158	72
14 Christmas Tree Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	16mo	$200,000	$132	70
9 Donder Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-4%)	20mo	$140,000	$100	69
7 Noel Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	23mo	$230,000	$164	68
3 Blitzen Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	20mo	$139,999	$104	65
4 Dasher Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	22mo	$90,000	$59	63
3 Dasher Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	22mo	$77,500	$62	48
1310 Northcliff Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	23mo	$395,000	$282	44
1 Holly Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	23mo	$120,000	$96	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-41,384
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,539
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,000 ($138/sqft)
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +75.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $179,486

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-72	+0% $-141	+5% $-211	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-203	+0% $-141	+5% $-79	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-91	base $-141	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveApproximately 1,456 building area (from county records)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or ConventionalLand lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Located in Christmas Village mobile home park (approximately 104 homes)Senior community; senior exemption appliesPark amenities include clubhouse, common area, recreational area, RV parking; high-speed internet availablePark approved for salePets: see remarksLand lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy sourcePublic waterCity of Shelton water serviceCity of Shelton sewer servicePUD #3 powerCable: XfinityInternet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (28x52, Sella)One levelHas a viewVery good conditionManufactured after 06/15/1976
• Construction: Wood constructionComposition roofConcrete ribbon foundationManufactured house / double wide
• Exterior features: Wood exteriorWood productsPatio/porch/deckLandscapedPaved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalRefrigeratorStove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath1 three-quarter bath1 bathtub2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heaterDining room, entry, family room, kitchen with eating space, living room, utility room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerUtility room with electric water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-29
   days on market $199,950 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-08-28
   days on market $199,950 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-08-27
   days on market $199,950 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-08-26
   days on market $199,950 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-08-25
   days on market $199,950 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-08-24
   days on market $199,950 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-08-23
   days on market $199,950 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-08-22
   days on market $199,950 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-08-21
   days on market $199,950 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-08-20
    days on market $199,950 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-08-19
    days on market $199,950 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-08-18
    days on market $199,950 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-08-17
    days on market $199,950 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-08-16
    days on market $199,950 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-08-15
    days on market $199,950 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-08-15
    days on market $199,950 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-08-13
    days on market $199,950 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-08-12
    days on market $199,950 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-08-11
    days on market $199,950 Active 111 DOM
20. 2026-08-10
    days on market $199,950 Active 110 DOM
21. 2026-08-09
    days on market $199,950 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-08-08
    days on market $199,950 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-08-07
    days on market $199,950 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $199,950 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $199,950 Active 105 DOM
26. 2026-08-04
    days on market $199,950 Active 104 DOM
27. 2026-08-03
    days on market $199,950 Active 103 DOM
28. 2026-07-31
    days on market $199,950 Active 100 DOM
29. 2026-07-30
    days on market $199,950 Active 99 DOM
30. 2026-07-29
    days on market $199,950 Active 98 DOM
31. 2026-07-27
    days on market $199,950 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-07-25
    days on market $199,950 Active 94 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,950 Active 93 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,950 Active 92 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,950 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,950 Active 90 DOM
37. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,950 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-07-17
    days on market $199,950 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,950 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,950 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,950 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-07-12
    days on market $199,950 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,950 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,950 Active 79 DOM
45. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,950 Active 78 DOM
46. 2026-07-08
    days on market $199,950 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,950 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,950 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,950 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-07-04
    days on market $199,950 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$5,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,245
• After-tax cash flow: $-452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,280–$21,840 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good foundation and structure, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The exterior siding and paint are in good condition, and the roof appears intact. The HVAC unit is in good condition, and the flooring is in good condition. The home has a good curb appeal with maintained landscaping. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mountain View Elementary Middle Oakland Bay Junior High School High Shelton High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,467
• Composite: 34.1/100
• National rank: #10288
• State rank: #237 of 291 in WA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelton, WA
• County: Mason County · 60,005 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveApproximately 1,456 building area (from county records)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or ConventionalLand lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Located in Christmas Village mobile home park (approximately 104 homes)Senior community; senior exemption appliesPark amenities include clubhouse, common area, recreational area, RV parking; high-speed internet availablePark approved for salePets: see remarksLand lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy sourcePublic waterCity of Shelton water serviceCity of Shelton sewer servicePUD #3 powerCable: XfinityInternet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (28x52, Sella)One levelHas a viewVery good conditionManufactured after 06/15/1976
• Construction: Wood constructionComposition roofConcrete ribbon foundationManufactured house / double wide
• Exterior features: Wood exteriorWood productsPatio/porch/deckLandscapedPaved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalRefrigeratorStove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateVinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath1 three-quarter bath1 bathtub2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heaterDining room, entry, family room, kitchen with eating space, living room, utility room
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerUtility room with electric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid