4 Blitzen Ln · Shelton, WA 98584

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition Est $151k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Christmas Village! This 55+ mobile home park is ideal for enjoying a peaceful lifestyle, while making new friends and participating in community activities. The spacious 3 bed, 2 bath home has been lovingly cared for and includes two living areas plus a dining room. The primary bedroom has an en-suite bathroom, as well as a large walk in closet. Relax on the back deck and take in the sounds of nature. Low maintenance landscaping leaves you time to enjoy your leisure activities. Just outside your front door is the community park, with a horseshoe pit and gazebo. The energy-efficient heat pump will keep you warm in the winter and cool in the summer. Come check it out and start your

Key facts

• Two living areas
• Dining room
• Back deck

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• DINING ROOM
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• BACK DECK
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Approximately 1,456 building area (from county records)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: Located in Christmas Village mobile home park (approximately 104 homes); Senior community; senior exemption applies; Park amenities include clubhouse, common area, recreational area, RV parking; high-speed internet available; Park approved for sale; Pets: see remarks; Land lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; City of Shelton water service; City of Shelton sewer service; PUD #3 power; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (28x52, Sella); One level; Has a view; Very good condition; Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Concrete ribbon foundation; Manufactured house / double wide
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heater; Dining room, entry, family room, kitchen with eating space, living room, utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room with electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (676 students, 68% FRL); Shelton High School (1,473 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,951 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Dasher Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	13mo	$50,000	$35	77
2 Blitzen Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	7mo	$230,000	$142	76
12 Christmas Tree Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	9mo	$239,000	$158	74
14 Christmas Tree Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	13mo	$200,000	$132	73
9 Donder Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-4%)	16mo	$140,000	$100	72
7 Noel Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	20mo	$230,000	$164	71
7 Holly Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	22mo	$115,000	$80	70
3 Blitzen Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	17mo	$139,999	$104	68
4 Dasher Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+6%)	19mo	$90,000	$59	66
3 Dasher Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	19mo	$77,500	$62	50
1310 Northcliff Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	20mo	$395,000	$282	47
1 Holly Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	20mo	$120,000	$96	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,316
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,273
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,950 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,950 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,950 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,950 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,950 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,950 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,950 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,950 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,950 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,950 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,950 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,950 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,950 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,950 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $199,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $2,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good foundation and structure, and the interior walls and paint are in good condition. The exterior siding and paint are in good condition, and the roof appears intact. The HVAC unit is in good condition, and the flooring is in good condition. The home has a good curb appeal with maintained landscaping. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and appeals to buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace outdated kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to buyers ↑
• Resale Replace outdated bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,467
• Composite: 34.1/100
• National rank: #10288
• State rank: #237 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelton, WA
• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $199,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid