1802 Fairfax Ln

Carrollton, TX 75006

$179,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$553
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-4/mo
• Annual: $-48/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-48/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (0.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $179k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#54 in TX, #2,159 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: commute F.
• Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 468 students, 93% FRL); Perry Middle (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 831 students, 79% FRL); Turner H S (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,107 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.