6436 Cahuilla Ave

Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$269,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,985/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,310/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $270k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.