6436 Cahuilla Ave · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$269,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1986 7,200 sqft lot $180/sqft · 12% below area Est $307k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $270k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,494 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,546
• List price: $269,999
• Delta: -11.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6614 Mojave Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (0%)	8mo	$259,500	$173	76
6355 Mojave Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	5mo	$310,000	$234	72
6563 Morongo	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+11%)	2mo	$300,000	$180	69
72337 El Paseo	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,464 (-2%)	1mo	$155,500	$106	65
6162 Chia Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-8%)	8mo	$258,800	$186	56
6668 Manzanita Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,291 (-14%)	8mo	$369,900	$287	53
72400 El Paseo Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-8%)	5mo	$227,500	$164	52
6025 Abronia Ave	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+10%)	5mo	$325,000	$198	52
72244 Sunnyslope Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-12%)	3mo	$357,500	$272	45
6317 El Rey Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (+10%)	8mo	$407,500	$247	43
71511 Sun Valley Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (+7%)	8mo	$335,000	$209	43
72555 Nicolson Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,637 (+9%)	4mo	$369,000	$225	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,855
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-38,561
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,787/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,123

Max offer price $250,707

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6627 Cahuilla Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,100	$1.85	15d	1	0.28mi
71593 Sunflower Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,995	$1.52	12d	1	0.59mi
5995 Encelia Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,499	$2.02	4d	1	0.61mi
72255 Sunnyvale Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	1.5	1187	$1,600	$1.35	24d	1	0.62mi
5930 Regino Ave Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,700	$1.29	5d	1	0.78mi
72548 Sunnyslope Dr Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1647	$2,150	$1.31	4d	1	0.96mi
5575 Encelia Dr Unit 29 Twentynine Palms, CA	4.0	2.5	1496	$2,095	$1.40	1d	1	1.08mi
5426 Mariposa Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	4.0	2.0	1889	$2,300	$1.22	24d	1	1.23mi
5415 Lupine Ave Twentynine Palms, CA	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,400	$1.70	43d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $269,999 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $279,000
17. 2026-05-05
    price $284,000
18. 2026-04-28
    price $289,000
19. 2026-04-15
    listed $299,000 Active
20. 2002-09-26
    soldstatus $82,500
21. 1987-09-03
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,787 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,787
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twentynine Palms, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+346.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $284,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2002-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 1987-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,787 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.