631 Pine Ridge Pl

Raleigh, NC 27609

$147,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$350
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-488/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $41,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-488/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (4.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Green Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,033 of 1,410 statewide, top 76%, 559 students, 64% FRL); Carroll Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #294 of 475 statewide, top 63%, 871 students, 60% FRL); Sanderson High (math 57% / reading 63%, grade C+, #215 of 535 statewide, top 40%, 1,677 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 30% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $148k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?