631 Pine Ridge Pl · Raleigh, NC 27609

$147,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1972 $350/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Condition; Overlooking lake, very private; New Pergo in Kit; New Berber carpet; White Cabinets, new counter tops, sink, bathrooms updated; Really large great room; Shows very, very well. Terrific Buy

Key facts

• Refrigerator conveys
• Wooded views
• Private patio

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• PRIVATE PATIO
• WOODED VIEWS
• COMMUNITY FISHING LAKE
• REFRIGERATOR CONVEYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Cedar Hill Homeowners Association; Monthly association fee (includes insurance, sewer, storm water maintenance, trash and water); Association amenities: insurance, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, pool, roof deck, trash, water

Exterior

• Parking: Open common parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family property; One level
• Construction: Concrete and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Concrete, block and brick/mortar foundation; Built as multi-family (living area about 1,011)
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-437/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Green Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,033 of 1,410 statewide, top 76%, 559 students, 64% FRL); Carroll Middle (math 28% / reading 40%, grade F, #294 of 475 statewide, top 63%, 871 students, 60% FRL); Sanderson High (math 57% / reading 63%, grade C+, #215 of 535 statewide, top 40%, 1,677 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 30% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $148k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,466 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-30,813
• Equity at exit: $22,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-47,273
• Equity at exit: $12,788

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27609

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,487/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,660

Max offer price $141,466

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $5	+0% $-36	+5% $-78	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-100	+0% $-36	+5% $27	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $1	base $-36	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Green Ridge Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	25d	1	0.25mi
5712 Finsbury Ct Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1224	$1,800	$1.47	25d	1	0.38mi
1208 Manassas Ct Unit A Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,450	$1.44	25d	1	0.64mi
5805 Nottoway Ct Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1368	$1,595	$1.17	14d	1	0.64mi
1209 Manassas Ct Unit C Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1262	$1,400	$1.11	4d	1	0.66mi
5499 Tralee Pl Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,299	$1.18	4d	3	0.67mi
5581 Burnlee Pl Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	1079	$1,489	$1.38	5d	3	0.69mi
4717 Radcliff Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,850	$1.65	14d	1	0.71mi
6317 Shanda Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,346	$1.47	3d	49	0.73mi
700 Spring Falls Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,731	$1.59	25d	1	0.83mi
700 Spring Falls Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0	1.0	868	$1,484	$1.71	3d	18	0.83mi
1401 E Millbrook Rd Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,298	$1.49	18d	13	0.87mi
6301 Lakecrest Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$2,024	$1.75	3d	41	0.88mi
214 Loft Ln Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,530	$1.43	4d	19	0.93mi
5825 Pointer Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,649	$1.86	4d	17	0.98mi
7040 Sandy Forks Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1184	$1,600	$1.35	25d	1	0.99mi
5315 Covey Ct Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.0	1299	$2,025	$1.56	23d	1	0.99mi
7010 Sandy Forks Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.99mi
6625 Lake Hill Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,409	$1.84	3d	41	1.00mi
120 Ridgewood Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	673	$1,275	$1.89	3d	10	1.07mi
6350 Terra Verde Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,593	$1.43	3d	28	1.09mi
1500 Sunbow Falls Ln Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,463	$1.57	3d	24	1.11mi
317 Lynn Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	908	$1,304	$1.44	4d	1	1.12mi
317 Lynn Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,704	$1.51	25d	1	1.12mi
6416 Meadow View Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1432	$1,695	$1.18	16d	1	1.15mi
6435 New Market Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1389	$2,000	$1.44	25d	1	1.15mi
1729 Grace Brook Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	3.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	14d	1	1.20mi
5606 Split Oak Way Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1290	$1,600	$1.24	14d	1	1.25mi
1328 Steinbeck Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.0–1.5	825	$1,445	$1.75	3d	22	1.31mi
500 Bridle Ridge Ln Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1173	$1,569	$1.34	4d	7	1.33mi
910 Shellbrook Ct Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	965	$1,830	$1.90	5d	21	1.36mi
1313 Hardimont Rd Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,704	$1.77	5d	12	1.38mi
6717 Six Forks Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	905	$1,550	$1.71	18d	1	1.39mi
5837 Shady Grove Cir Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,500	$1.42	5d	1	1.39mi
201 Park At North Hills St Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,444	$2.67	3d	16	1.41mi
141 Park Ave Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,187	$2.31	3d	38	1.44mi
5985 Dixon Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0	1.0	798	$1,322	$1.66	5d	1	1.45mi
141 N Park at Hills St Raleigh, NC	1.0	1.0	846	$2,015	$2.38	5d	1	1.45mi
141 N Park at Hills St Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,193	$1.97	4d	1	1.45mi
6820 Woodbend Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,260	$1.74	3d	18	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $147,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$1,487
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable loss: −$2,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raleigh

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1028

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raleigh, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 569,344
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 35,573
• Household income: $83,065
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -503.19%
• Current HPI: 317.0251
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.57%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+228.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $147,900 TMLS
• 2019-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-20 Sold (MLS) $70,000 TMLS
• 2003-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2003-03-11 Listed $70,000 TMLS
• 1998-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-25 Sold (MLS) $68,000 TMLS
• 1998-05-02 Listed $68,900 TMLS
• 1983-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,487 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.