Tilley Plan

Elmendorf, TX 78112

$196,249D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,607/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax + insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,674/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $60,480

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $196k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-357 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 498 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.