Tilley Plan · Elmendorf, TX 78112

$196,249

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft area

Tags

• FIRST-LEVEL OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $196,249 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $215,999.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $196k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 498 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-357 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,748 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,999
• List price: $196,249
• Delta: -8.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6622 Fiore Gdn	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,692 (0%)	0mo	$188,999	$112	95
6610 Fiore Gdn	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$198,999	$118	95
14804 Granite Gdn	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-3%)	0mo	$221,999	$136	84
6618 Coquina Cv	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (0%)	0mo	$130,999	$77	83
15010 Mudstone Pl	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,692 (0%)	0mo	$184,499	$109	82
14844 Quartz Cv	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-2%)	1mo	$211,999	$128	82
14852 Quartz Cv	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+6%)	1mo	$221,999	$124	82
14912 Granite Gdn	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-3%)	1mo	$219,999	$135	82
6618 Fiore Gdn	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+12%)	1mo	$203,999	$108	76
6804 Marble Rdg	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,535 (-9%)	1mo	$149,999	$98	70
14908 Granite Gdn	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+12%)	1mo	$231,999	$122	67
14849 Quartz Cv	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+12%)	0mo	$232,999	$122	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,157
• Equity at exit: $60,941

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,005
• Equity at exit: $71,850

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 59 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $195,999 ($119/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 51% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 498
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,240/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $183,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-148	+0% $-223	+5% $-297	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-350	-5% $-286	+0% $-223	+5% $-159	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-168	base $-223	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15111 Mudstone Pl Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,691	$1.00	9d	1	0.07mi
15106 Azzurro Stone Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,451	$0.92	17d	1	0.12mi
6914 Dorato Rdg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1802	$1,625	$0.90	9d	1	0.38mi
6933 Biotite Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,650	$1.47	59d	1	0.39mi
6941 Dorato Rdg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$1,550	$0.79	34d	1	0.41mi
6933 Calcite Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,695	$1.06	61d	1	0.44mi
6948 Calcite Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	9d	1	0.48mi
6964 Calcite Trl Elmendorf, TX	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,650	$1.15	9d	1	0.50mi
14911 Rhyolite Way Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,595	$0.95	24d	1	0.52mi
14662 Stirrup Trce Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,690	$1.00	9d	1	1.15mi
14606 Hackamore Way Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,700	$1.00	36d	1	1.16mi
14606 Hackamore Way Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,700	$1.00	64d	1	1.16mi
14651 Latigo Loop Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,750	$1.03	27d	1	1.26mi
7663 Stud Dr Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	9d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $196,249 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $196,249 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $196,249 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $196,249 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $197,249 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $198,249 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $198,249 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $198,249 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $198,249 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $200,249 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $200,249 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $200,249 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $200,249 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $200,249 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $200,249 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $200,249 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $200,249 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $200,249 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $200,249 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $200,249 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    pricedays on market $200,249 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,999 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,999 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,999 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,999 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,999 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,999 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,999 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $199,999 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $199,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $199,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    price $199,999 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $199,749 Active 127 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,499 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,499 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,499 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    price $199,499 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,249 Active 121 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,249 Active 119 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,249 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,249 Active 114 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    price $199,249 Active 113 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $198,999 Active 113 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $198,999 Active 110 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$3,240
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable loss: −$6,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,560
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,460–$25,380 screening

This well-maintained, two-story home with a modern interior and exterior is ready for move-in. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harmony El F TX #3,739/4,322 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 58/100

Livability — Elmendorf

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1189
• US rank: #20804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar · 2,336,851 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,959
• Household income: $54,445
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $198,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $195,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $200,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-14 Listed $195,999 Zillow