Plan 3147 Modeled Plan

Cresson, TX 76008

$433,995F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,147 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 352 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,986/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,125
• Tax + insurance: −$993
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-1,759/mo
• Annual: $-21,108/yr
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.65%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $166,837

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $434k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 352 days — a 12% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, schools F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 826 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 352 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.