Plan 3147 Modeled Plan · Cresson, TX 76008

$433,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,147 sqft · SingleFamily · 349 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Front porch
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $433,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $595,861.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $434k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $341k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, schools F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 818 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($382k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $298,653 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.65%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 16.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,861
• List price: $433,995
• Delta: -27.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 Gallegos Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	3,147 (0%)	2mo	$449,942	$143	94
340 Fallbrook Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	3,147 (0%)	6mo	$472,008	$150	88
129 Gallegos Dr	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,147 (0%)	5mo	$468,780	$149	86
204 Gallegos Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,939 (-7%)	1mo	$429,280	$146	78
121 Gallegos Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,839 (-10%)	2mo	$439,864	$155	71
161 Lantern Ridge Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	3,228 (+3%)	4mo	$811,200	$251	61
355 Fire Blade Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	3,497 (+11%)	2mo	$699,900	$200	45
149 Lantern Ridge Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	3,410 (+8%)	13mo	$878,240	$258	45
153 Lantern Rdg	0.57mi	4/4.0	2,829 (-10%)	7mo	$698,561	$247	45
157 Lantern Ridge Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,829 (-10%)	12mo	$612,990	$217	42
212 Lantern Ridge Dr	0.74mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,316 (+5%)	12mo	$895,000	$270	37
339 Fire Blade Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,856 (-9%)	14mo	$614,990	$215	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-206,026
• Equity at exit: $88,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-313,073
• Equity at exit: $51,519

Cash invested: $166,841 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 818
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,125
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$745 /mo · $8,938/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-1,759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,212

Max offer price $341,403

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,965
• Closing costs: $17,876
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $433,995 Active 349 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $433,995 Active 348 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $433,995 Active 347 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $433,995 Active 346 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $433,995 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $433,995 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $433,995 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $433,995 Active 338 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $447,995 Active 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $447,995 Active 334 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $447,995 Active 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $447,995 Active 332 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $447,995 Active 331 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $447,995 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

15. 2026-04-16
    price $442,995 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

16. 2026-02-28
    status Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

17. 2026-02-27
    historical 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

18. 2025-11-19
    price $439,995 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

19. 2025-11-06
    price $452,995 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

20. 2025-07-04
    listed $437,995 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    * Front porch * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Den * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Game room * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,377
• − Property taxes: −$8,938
• − Insurance: −$2,979
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,867
• − Management: −$2,867
• − Depreciation: −$17,334
• Taxable loss: −$32,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,806
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cresson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #15205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 27.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $447,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $442,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $439,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $452,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Listed $437,995 Zillow