2906 Rockwood Dr

Arcola, TX 77583

$264,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-390/mo
• Annual: $-4,675/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $78,810

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?