Is 2906 Rockwood Dr in Arcola, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.6% cap rate and $-390/mo modeled cash flow at a $264,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2906 Rockwood Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,096/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 31.65

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.2/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +2.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
DSCR +1.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$264,990

2906 Rockwood Dr · Arcola, TX 77583

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,677 sqft lot Garage $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Charming one-story Frio floor plan featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a bright open-concept design perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen seamlessly overlooks the dining and living areas, creating a welcoming flow throughout the home. The private primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and an en-suite bath for added comfort. Secondary bedrooms are generously sized and thoughtfully positioned. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and a spacious backyard. Located in the growing Creekhaven community with convenient access to Hwy 288. Schedule your tour today! * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

Key facts

Open-concept design
Spacious backyard
Spacious kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (15.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $210k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $209,564 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 4.63%
Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
DSCR: 0.74
GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $281,462
List price: $264,990
Delta: -5.85%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13327 Padre Bay Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+2%)	1mo	$306,085	$205	94
2806 Rockwood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	7mo	$284,990	$193	90
13327 Prado Ridge Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-2%)	3mo	$282,935	$198	90
13219 Padre Bay Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	2mo	$299,990	$203	88
2915 Copper Falls Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-2%)	6mo	$279,821	$196	86
2910 Rockwood Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+8%)	1mo	$279,990	$177	85
13203 Hayden Peak Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+3%)	5mo	$291,990	$195	84
13235 Padre Bay Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	6mo	$274,990	$186	83
13215 Padre Bay Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,592 (+9%)	4mo	$284,990	$179	70
13219 Hayden Peak Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+12%)	4mo	$318,200	$194	70
13207 Hayden Peak Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+12%)	4mo	$317,205	$193	69
12915 Green Valley Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	4mo	$325,000	$203	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-75,591
Equity at exit: $41,967

10-year hold

IRR: -46.3%
Equity multiple: -0.50×
Total profit: $-117,914
Equity at exit: $24,336

Cash invested: $78,810 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 35 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 16.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $294,990 ($183/sqft)
Median days on market: 32 d
This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1445
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,096 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,222/yr
Insurance: −$117
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
Net cashflow: $-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $225,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-195	-5% $-292	+0% $-390	+5% $-487	+10% $-584
Rent	-10% $-555	-5% $-472	+0% $-390	+5% $-307	+10% $-224
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-318	base $-390	+0.5pp $-463	+1.0pp $-537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $70,366
Closing costs: $8,444
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13023 Pleasant Valley Dr Rosharon, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: First right of refusal and other disclosures applyLocated on a 5,677 sq ft lot
HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,200 (association name TBD)Curbs and gutters in the community

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySecurity system ownedSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)North-facing
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by Coventry Homes
Exterior features: Covered patioPatioPrivate yardDeckSubdivision settingConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeDisposalGas ovenMicrowaveOvenENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (12x12)Bedroom on the first floor (10x10)Bedroom on the first floor (10x10)
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)HVAC includedThermostat (programmable)
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySolid surface countersSeparate showerTub with showerCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air quality
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $264,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $264,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $264,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $264,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $264,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $264,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $264,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $264,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $264,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $264,990 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $264,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $264,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $264,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $264,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $264,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $264,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $264,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $264,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $264,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $264,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $264,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $264,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $264,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $264,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $264,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $264,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $264,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $264,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $264,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $264,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $264,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $264,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $264,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $264,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $264,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-26

pricedays on market $264,990 Active 82 DOM

Show marketing remark (736 chars)

Charming one-story Frio floor plan featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a bright open-concept design perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen seamlessly overlooks the dining and living areas, creating a welcoming flow throughout the home. The private primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and an en-suite bath for added comfort. Secondary bedrooms are generously sized and thoughtfully positioned. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and a spacious backyard. Located in the growing Creekhaven community with convenient access to Hwy 288. Schedule your tour today! * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.
2026-06-24

days on market $269,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $269,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $269,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $269,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $269,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $269,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $269,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $269,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $269,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $269,990 Active 65 DOM

Show marketing remark (736 chars)

Charming one-story Frio floor plan featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a bright open-concept design perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen seamlessly overlooks the dining and living areas, creating a welcoming flow throughout the home. The private primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and an en-suite bath for added comfort. Secondary bedrooms are generously sized and thoughtfully positioned. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and a spacious backyard. Located in the growing Creekhaven community with convenient access to Hwy 288. Schedule your tour today! * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.
2026-06-08

days on market $269,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-07

pricedays on market $269,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $274,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $274,990 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,148
− Mortgage interest: −$15,766
− Property taxes: −$4,222
− Insurance: −$1,407
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
− Management: −$2,012
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$8,188
Taxable loss: −$9,659

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,318
After-tax cash flow: $-2,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,300–$21,900 screening

This charming one-story home in the Frio floor plan is in good condition with a modern design and ample natural light. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 53/100

Livability — Arcola

Score: 53/100
State rank: #1425
US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 52,747
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-06-26 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
2026-06-25 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
2026-06-09 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
2026-06-04 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
2026-05-15 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
2026-05-13 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
2026-05-02 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
2026-04-09 Price Changed $292,175 Zillow
2026-04-05 Listed $291,225 HARMLS
2026-03-31 Listed $291,225 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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