407 Williams Dr

Waynesboro, MS 39367

$7,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 987 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 273 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$41
• Tax + insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $645/mo
• Annual: $7,736/yr
• Cap rate: 104.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 349.72%
• DSCR: 16.56
• 1% rule: 11.57%
• Cash to close: $2,212

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $8k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($914 rent vs $8k).
• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $55 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $237 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#140 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County School District (town): math 24% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #79 of 130 in MS (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wayne Central Elementary School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #239 of 375 statewide, top 64%, 443 students, 100% FRL); Waynesboro Riverview Ele School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #246 of 375 statewide, top 67%, 442 students, 100% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #111 of 197 statewide, top 57%, 840 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 76% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (74%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?