407 Williams Dr · Waynesboro, MS 39367

$7,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 987 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 273 Days on market

Built 1976 0.30 ac lot $8/sqft · 91% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 272 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $7,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$85,592) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($914 rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#140 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County School District (town): math 24% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #79 of 130 in MS (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wayne Central Elementary School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #239 of 375 statewide, top 64%, 443 students, 100% FRL); Waynesboro Riverview Ele School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #246 of 375 statewide, top 67%, 442 students, 100% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #111 of 197 statewide, top 57%, 840 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 76% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $55 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $237 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (74%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 5.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $6,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 104.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 349.72%
• DSCR: 16.56
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,592
• List price: $7,900
• Delta: -90.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.00×
• Total profit: $39,806
• Equity at exit: $1,178

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.62×
• Total profit: $87,644
• Equity at exit: $683

Cash invested: $2,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39367

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$41
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $393/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $98

Max offer price $7,900

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $670	+0% $645	+5% $642	+10% $640
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $609	+0% $645	+5% $681	+10% $717
Rate	-1.0pp $649	-0.5pp $647	base $645	+0.5pp $643	+1.0pp $641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,975
• Closing costs: $237
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,900 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $7,900 Active 271 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $7,900 Active 270 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,900 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,900 Active 266 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $8,900 Active 265 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $8,900 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $8,900 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $8,900 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,900 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,900 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-04-27
    price $8,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

13. 2026-03-13
    price $9,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

14. 2026-02-02
    price $12,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

15. 2025-12-17
    price $15,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

16. 2025-11-08
    price $19,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

17. 2025-10-10
    price $24,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

18. 2025-09-16
    listed $29,900 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is being sold As-Is, Where-Is. Seller may have limited knowledge of the property condition. Buyer to verify all information and conduct their own inspections and due diligence, including utilities, zoning, and property condition.

19. 2025-08-20
    historical
20. 2025-08-14
    price $34,300
21. 2025-07-14
    price $36,100
22. 2025-06-13
    price $37,900
23. 2025-05-14
    price $39,800
24. 2025-04-11
    listed $41,870 Active
25. 1994-11-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $393 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $393 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$443
• − Property taxes: −$393
• − Insurance: −$40
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$878
• − Management: −$878
• − Depreciation: −$230
• Taxable income: $8,109
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,946
• After-tax cash flow: $5,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804530
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,885
• Composite: 21.65/100
• National rank: #8283
• State rank: #79 of 130 in MS

Livability — Waynesboro

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #14735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waynesboro, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,401

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,737 people
• By 2030: 19,116 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 17,754 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 16,267 · -17.6%
• By 2075: 12,858 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 10,121 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.7) · D 33.2% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.8pp · 2024: -32.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.7 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+25.8 2012: R+19.1 2008: R+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.56%
• Current HPI: 139.1889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-78.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $8,900 LBOR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $9,900 LBOR
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $12,900 LBOR
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $15,900 LBOR
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $19,900 LBOR
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $24,900 LBOR
• 2025-09-16 Listed $29,900 LBOR
• 2025-08-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $34,300 MLSU
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $36,100 MLSU
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $37,900 MLSU
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $39,800 MLSU
• 2025-04-11 Listed $41,870 MLSU
• 1994-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $393 · -25.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.