3850 Main St #29

Cottonwood, CA 96022

$35,500B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,465/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$186
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $912/mo
• Annual: $10,947/yr
• Cap rate: 37.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.13%
• DSCR: 5.90
• 1% rule: 4.13%
• Cash to close: $9,940

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $245 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#476 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood Union Elementary (town): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #191 of 517 in CA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 37.1% vs local median 3.0% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Paint — Paint appears chipped and faded in some areas
• Minor: Landscaping — Some areas of the yard appear overgrown