3850 Main St #29 · Cottonwood, CA 96022

$35,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 74 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Open house this Saturday 6-6-26 from 11:00am-1:00pm. * Welcome to this cute 2-bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 600 sq ft home in the Cottonwood Oaks Mobile Home Park. Enjoy a surprisingly private setting with a fenced front and backyard, shade trees, and room for pets, kids, or container gardening. Space rent is $700/month and covers water, sewer, and trash. Minutes to I-5, shopping, and everyday essentials. Clean, cozy, and move-in ready!

Key facts

• Container gardening
• Shade trees
• Room for pets

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• FENCED FRONT AND BACKYARD
• SHADE TREES
• ROOM FOR PETS
• ROOM FOR KIDS
• CONTAINER GARDENING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Level topography; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling; Has heating
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $36k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.1% vs local median 3.0% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#476 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood Union Elementary (town): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #191 of 517 in CA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $245 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,370 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.13%
• DSCR: 5.90
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $5,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3850 Main St #22	0.01mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (+4%)	7mo	$5,000	$8	78
3850 Main St #17	0.01mi	2/1.0	540 (-10%)	8mo	$5,000	$9	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $52,370
• Equity at exit: $5,293

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.12×
• Total profit: $120,505
• Equity at exit: $3,069

Cash invested: $9,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96022

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$186
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $532/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $311

Max offer price $35,500

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,875
• Closing costs: $1,065
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,500 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,500 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,500 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,500 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,500 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,500 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,500 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,500 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,500 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,500 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,500 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,500 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,500 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 436-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,500 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,500 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,500 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $35,500 Active
19. 2026-03-04
    price $35,500
20. 2026-01-09
    status Active
21. 2026-01-02
    status Pending
22. 2025-12-02
    price $33,775
23. 2025-11-05
    listed $35,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,989
• − Property taxes: −$532
• − Insurance: −$178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$1,033
• Taxable income: $11,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,649
• After-tax cash flow: $8,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. It has a fenced yard and is move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears chipped and faded in some areas
• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the yard appear overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears chipped and faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Some areas of the yard appear overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0609990
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,081
• Composite: 38.22/100
• National rank: #4249
• State rank: #191 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #16162

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,497

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.22%
• Current HPI: 364.3174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $35,500 SAOR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $35,500 SAOR
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-01-02 Pending — SAOR
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $33,775 SAOR
• 2025-11-05 Listed $35,500 SAOR