4427 SW 21st Ln

Gainesville, FL 32607

$211,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,321 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax + insurance: −$453
• HOA: −$89
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-242/mo
• Annual: $-2,906/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $59,080

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.7% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Littlewood Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 706 students, 48% FRL); Kanapaha Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,780/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3418% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?