4427 SW 21st Ln · Gainesville, FL 32607

$211,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,321 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1985 1,307 sqft lot $89/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy home is just waiting for you! Low maintenance, with updates and incredibly affordable and less than 2 miles to University of Florida! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and low-maintenance convenience in Gainesville. Step inside this townhome and be greeted by vaulted ceilings and an open concept living area. Along with the community living spaces, downstairs you will find a bedroom and full bathroom and the laundry connections. The home has NO CARPET, making it easy to maintain. Updates include a recently replaced roof in 2022, and water heater, refrigerator, range hood, bathroom vanities, and light fixtures, and the new wood deck that were all done in 2023. These improvements help reduce immediate update costs and make move-in or tenant turnover easier. Marchwood also offers a low HOA that includes lawn maintenance and access to the community pool, adding convenience and affordability. There are 2 assigned parking spaces and additional visitor parking. With its Gainesville location and practical upgrades, this townhome is an excellent option for buyers seeking a primary residence or investment property with easy upkeep. Only about 3.5 miles to UF Health and the VA hospital medical complexes. Call to schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• No carpet
• New wood deck
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• NO CARPET
• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• NEW WOOD DECK
• LOW HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Littlewood Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 706 students, 48% FRL); Kanapaha Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,780/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3418% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,227 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-53,666
• Equity at exit: $31,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-82,420
• Equity at exit: $18,243

Cash invested: $59,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,107
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,377/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $168,227

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-182	+0% $-242	+5% $-302	+10% $-362
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-312	+0% $-242	+5% $-172	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-136	-0.5pp $-188	base $-242	+0.5pp $-297	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,750
• Closing costs: $6,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	15d	61	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $89 · $1,068/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolparking

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $211,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $211,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $211,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $211,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $211,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $211,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $211,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $211,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $211,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $211,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $211,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $211,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $211,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $211,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $211,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $211,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $211,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $214,000 1311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1311 chars)

    This cozy home is just waiting for you! Low maintenance, with updates and incredibly affordable and less than 2 miles to University of Florida! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and low-maintenance convenience in Gainesville. Step inside this townhome and be greeted by vaulted ceilings and an open concept living area. Along with the community living spaces, downstairs you will find a bedroom and full bathroom and the laundry connections. The home has NO CARPET, making it easy to maintain. Updates include a recently replaced roof in 2022, and water heater, refrigerator, range hood, bathroom vanities, and light fixtures, and the new wood deck that were all done in 2023. These improvements help reduce immediate update costs and make move-in or tenant turnover easier. Marchwood also offers a low HOA that includes lawn maintenance and access to the community pool, adding convenience and affordability. There are 2 assigned parking spaces and additional visitor parking. With its Gainesville location and practical upgrades, this townhome is an excellent option for buyers seeking a primary residence or investment property with easy upkeep. Only about 3.5 miles to UF Health and the VA hospital medical complexes. Call to schedule your private showing today!

19. 2026-03-25
    price $217,000 1311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1311 chars)

    This cozy home is just waiting for you! Low maintenance, with updates and incredibly affordable and less than 2 miles to University of Florida! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and low-maintenance convenience in Gainesville. Step inside this townhome and be greeted by vaulted ceilings and an open concept living area. Along with the community living spaces, downstairs you will find a bedroom and full bathroom and the laundry connections. The home has NO CARPET, making it easy to maintain. Updates include a recently replaced roof in 2022, and water heater, refrigerator, range hood, bathroom vanities, and light fixtures, and the new wood deck that were all done in 2023. These improvements help reduce immediate update costs and make move-in or tenant turnover easier. Marchwood also offers a low HOA that includes lawn maintenance and access to the community pool, adding convenience and affordability. There are 2 assigned parking spaces and additional visitor parking. With its Gainesville location and practical upgrades, this townhome is an excellent option for buyers seeking a primary residence or investment property with easy upkeep. Only about 3.5 miles to UF Health and the VA hospital medical complexes. Call to schedule your private showing today!

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $219,000 Active 1311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1311 chars)

    This cozy home is just waiting for you! Low maintenance, with updates and incredibly affordable and less than 2 miles to University of Florida! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath townhome offers the perfect blend of comfort, updates, and low-maintenance convenience in Gainesville. Step inside this townhome and be greeted by vaulted ceilings and an open concept living area. Along with the community living spaces, downstairs you will find a bedroom and full bathroom and the laundry connections. The home has NO CARPET, making it easy to maintain. Updates include a recently replaced roof in 2022, and water heater, refrigerator, range hood, bathroom vanities, and light fixtures, and the new wood deck that were all done in 2023. These improvements help reduce immediate update costs and make move-in or tenant turnover easier. Marchwood also offers a low HOA that includes lawn maintenance and access to the community pool, adding convenience and affordability. There are 2 assigned parking spaces and additional visitor parking. With its Gainesville location and practical upgrades, this townhome is an excellent option for buyers seeking a primary residence or investment property with easy upkeep. Only about 3.5 miles to UF Health and the VA hospital medical complexes. Call to schedule your private showing today!

21. 2026-02-07
    historical
22. 2026-01-13
    price $215,000
23. 2025-12-08
    historical $1,525
24. 2025-11-04
    price $211,000
25. 2025-10-10
    price $1,525
26. 2025-10-09
    price $215,000
27. 2025-10-08
    price $1,600
28. 2025-09-11
    listed $220,000 Active
29. 2025-09-10
    listed $1,750
30. 2025-09-01
    historical $1,750
31. 2025-07-19
    historical $1,750
32. 2025-06-06
    listed $1,750
33. 2025-05-09
    listed $1,750
34. 2024-08-16
    historical $1,745
35. 2024-07-28
    listed $1,745
36. 2024-07-18
    historical $1,745
37. 2024-06-21
    price $1,745
38. 2024-06-04
    price $1,800
39. 2024-05-21
    listed $1,850
40. 2023-06-14
    soldstatus $211,000
41. 2023-06-12
    soldstatus $211,000 Closed
42. 2023-05-13
    status Pending
43. 2023-05-10
    listed $205,000 Active
44. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus $155,000
45. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
46. 2021-12-16
    status Pending
47. 2021-11-08
    status Active
48. 2021-11-08
    price $162,000
49. 2021-03-02
    listed $159,500 Active
50. 2021-03-02
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,377 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,377 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,819
• − Property taxes: −$4,377
• − Insurance: −$1,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$6,138
• Taxable loss: −$6,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+355.3% since first listed

48 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $214,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Rental Removed $1,525 STELLARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $211,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $1,525 STELLARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $1,600 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-10 Listed for Rent $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Rental Removed $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Rental Removed $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-06 Listed for Rent $1,750 STELLARMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,750 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-16 Rental Removed $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-28 Listed for Rent $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-18 Rental Removed $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $1,745 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-21 Listed for Rent $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) $211,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-10 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-31 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Price Changed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-02 Listed $159,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-23 Listed $163,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-07 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-19 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-15 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records
• 1994-01-17 Sold (MLS) $47,875 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-08-11 Listed $50,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,400 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,377 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.