181 Long Hill Rd

Great Notch, NJ 07424

$325,000F

1 bd · 1.5 ba · — sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$878
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-1,178/mo
• Annual: $-14,133/yr
• Cap rate: 1.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.53%
• DSCR: 0.31
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (52.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (24.2% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $155k (52.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Passaic Valley Regional High School District #1 (suburban): math 23% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #271 of 472 in NJ (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 860 units permitted in Passaic County in 2024 (614 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Passaic County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.