9315 Ginger Rd

Gilmer, TX 75644

$175,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $117/mo
• Annual: $1,408/yr
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (13.9% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.