9315 Ginger Rd · Gilmer, TX 75644

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2015 1.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

With 1,680 square feet, this home feels larger than expected thanks to its open-concept layout and spacious living areas. The living room flows into the dining area and kitchen, creating a comfortable and functional main living space. The kitchen includes a center island, ample cabinet storage, and plenty of workspace for everyday use and gathering. Recent updates and improvements include the addition of a fourth bedroom, a tiled primary bathroom shower, updated flooring in select areas, a gravel circle driveway, a two-car carport, and a newly added back porch. A shop has also been added, providing additional storage and workspace flexibility. These upgrades enhance both livability and func

Key facts

• Two-car carport
• Center island
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• CENTER ISLAND
• TILED PRIMARY BATHROOM SHOWER
• GRAVEL CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• NEWLY ADDED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.99 acres
• Financial info: No investment or cash flow details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No utility provider details provided
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliance details beyond water heater provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gilmer El (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 1,179 students, 81% FRL); Bruce J H (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 429 students, 78% FRL); Gilmer H S (math 63% / reading 53%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 815 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 54% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,634 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $102,719
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $296,494
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,358

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $167	+0% $117	+5% $68	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $58	+0% $117	+5% $177	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $205	-0.5pp $162	base $117	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $175,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,218/yr (+$185/mo · 225.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$377
• After-tax cash flow: $1,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $175,000 LAAR
• 2021-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +25.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.