481 First St

Van Vleck, TX 77482

$150,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-373/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,294 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Van Vleck ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #492 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.