481 First St · Van Vleck, TX 77482

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1984 0.26 ac lot $87/sqft · 23% below area Est $194k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you have been looking for a great home in the well loved Van Vleck Community then this is your house. This property consists of 4 bedrooms and two baths with an attached double garage and is ready for its new owner to love it just as much as current owners have.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,294 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Van Vleck ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #492 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,345
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -22.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $23,000
• Equity at exit: $74,712

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $76,633
• Equity at exit: $121,141

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77482

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,371/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $144,514

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $11	+0% $-31	+5% $-74	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-86	+0% $-31	+5% $24	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $7	base $-31	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $150,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-02-26
    listed $185,000 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    If you have been looking for a great home in the well loved Van Vleck Community then this is your house. This property consists of 4 bedrooms and two baths with an attached double garage and is ready for its new owner to love it just as much as current owners have.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,371 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,371 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,371
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$688
• After-tax cash flow: $315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Vleck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843950
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,348
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6106
• State rank: #492 of 826 in TX

Livability — Van Vleck

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1294
• US rank: #22487

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Van Vleck, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,047

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 17% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 181.6798
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $185,000 BCBR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,371 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.