8306 Polaris Dr

Rougemont, NC 27503

$375,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $210/mo
• Annual: $2,523/yr
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.40%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#717 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); George L Carrington Middle (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #335 of 475 statewide, top 72%, 755 students, 73% FRL); Northern High (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,308 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 58% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $375k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.2% in Rougemont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.