8306 Polaris Dr · Rougemont, NC 27503

$375,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1980 0.94 ac lot Est $439k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, one owner ranch home on nearly an acre in peaceful North Durham! Inviting outdoor living areas include a screened porch, covered grilling porch and two level deck overlooking the farm land behind the home. This home features a 400 square foot Family/Sun room with a wet bar and gas fireplace, two large pantries, separate dining room and living room. Efficient galley kitchen with breakfast area is open to the light-filled family room. Wired detached shed and garden space in the large yard.

Key facts

• Spacious flat lot
• No hoa restrictions
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLAT LOT
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• NEW FRONT PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electricity connected; Water connected; Septic connected
• Home design: Single-story house; Site-built construction; No shared/common walls; Zoned RR
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick/mortar foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as a site-built house
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Enclosed porch; Screened porch; Shed(s); Storage building; Workshop; Publicly maintained paved road access; Nearly 1-acre lot (approx. 0.94 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Pantry; Primary bedroom on the downstairs level; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the kitchen / laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.2% in Rougemont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#717 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); George L Carrington Middle (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #335 of 475 statewide, top 72%, 755 students, 73% FRL); Northern High (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #441 of 535 statewide, top 83%, 1,308 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 58% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $375k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,529 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.40%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $438,960
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8504 Polaris Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	24mo	$377,000	$236	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-47,492
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-24,588
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27503

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,390/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $316	+0% $210	+5% $104	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $84	+0% $210	+5% $337	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $306	base $210	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $375,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $375,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   status $375,000 Pending 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $375,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $390,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $390,000
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $399,900 Active
17. 2020-02-17
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Spacious, one owner ranch home on nearly an acre in peaceful North Durham! Inviting outdoor living areas include a screened porch, covered grilling porch and two level deck overlooking the farm land behind the home. This home features a 400 square foot Family/Sun room with a wet bar and gas fireplace, two large pantries, separate dining room and living room. Efficient galley kitchen with breakfast area is open to the light-filled family room. Wired detached shed and garden space in the large yard.

18. 2020-02-17
    soldstatus $215,000

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Spacious, one owner ranch home on nearly an acre in peaceful North Durham! Inviting outdoor living areas include a screened porch, covered grilling porch and two level deck overlooking the farm land behind the home. This home features a 400 square foot Family/Sun room with a wet bar and gas fireplace, two large pantries, separate dining room and living room. Efficient galley kitchen with breakfast area is open to the light-filled family room. Wired detached shed and garden space in the large yard.

19. 2020-01-09
    historical Contingent 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Spacious, one owner ranch home on nearly an acre in peaceful North Durham! Inviting outdoor living areas include a screened porch, covered grilling porch and two level deck overlooking the farm land behind the home. This home features a 400 square foot Family/Sun room with a wet bar and gas fireplace, two large pantries, separate dining room and living room. Efficient galley kitchen with breakfast area is open to the light-filled family room. Wired detached shed and garden space in the large yard.

20. 2020-01-08
    price $229,500 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Spacious, one owner ranch home on nearly an acre in peaceful North Durham! Inviting outdoor living areas include a screened porch, covered grilling porch and two level deck overlooking the farm land behind the home. This home features a 400 square foot Family/Sun room with a wet bar and gas fireplace, two large pantries, separate dining room and living room. Efficient galley kitchen with breakfast area is open to the light-filled family room. Wired detached shed and garden space in the large yard.

21. 2019-10-23
    listed $235,000 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Spacious, one owner ranch home on nearly an acre in peaceful North Durham! Inviting outdoor living areas include a screened porch, covered grilling porch and two level deck overlooking the farm land behind the home. This home features a 400 square foot Family/Sun room with a wet bar and gas fireplace, two large pantries, separate dining room and living room. Efficient galley kitchen with breakfast area is open to the light-filled family room. Wired detached shed and garden space in the large yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,075 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,390
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,077
• − Management: −$3,077
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$3,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $3,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rougemont

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #717
• US rank: #26120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,092

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.90%
• Current HPI: 255.0376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $390,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $399,900 TMLS
• 2020-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-17 Sold (MLS) $215,000 TMLS
• 2020-01-09 Contingent — TMLS
• 2020-01-08 Price Changed $229,500 TMLS
• 2019-10-23 Listed $235,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,390 · +21.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.