3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,255 sqft ·
Built 2024
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 447 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,728/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$487
HOA
−$38
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$363
Net cashflow
$-419/mo
Annual
$-5,025/yr
Cap rate
4.20%
Cash-on-cash
-7.48%
DSCR
0.67
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$67,197
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (30.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (28.0% below list).
It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $166k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 274 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6FVTM562CDSDHJ
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29