2538 Dry Moss Way · San Antonio, TX 78224

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 447 Days on market

Built 2024 4,356 sqft lot Est $231k · at est. $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Welcome home to The Comal! A charming exterior greets you as you enter the welcoming foyer. The open concept family and kitchen area is the perfect place for gatherings with a lovely primary suite to unwind in. This floor plan has a total of three bedrooms and two bathrooms as well as a two-car garage. Make it your own with The Comal's flexible floor plan. From additional garage space to a covered patio, you've got every opportunity to make The Comal your dream home. Just know that offerings vary by location, so please discuss our standard features and upgrade options with your community's agent.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 274 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,016 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.48%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2538 Dry Moss Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-0%)	4mo	$239,990	$192	96
10323 Fuji Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+8%)	1mo	$239,990	$176	76
2503 Rambo Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+11%)	4mo	$263,265	$190	75
2515 Rambo Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+11%)	6mo	$255,805	$184	74
2506 Rambo Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+11%)	4mo	$259,240	$187	73
10319 Fuji Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+8%)	5mo	$229,990	$169	73
2350 Pink Pearl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+9%)	6mo	$269,990	$198	69
2311 Crisp Gln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+11%)	3mo	$266,725	$192	64
3027 Mission Gate	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+8%)	4mo	$199,000	$147	63
2130 Bigmouth Rod	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$156	56
3011 Old Almonte	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+14%)	4mo	$195,000	$137	56
2126 Fishing Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+8%)	5mo	$214,900	$158	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $100,445
• Equity at exit: $216,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $310,124
• Equity at exit: $466,248

Cash invested: $67,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,646/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $166,016

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,998
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2350 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,650	$1.16	43d	1	0.21mi
2350 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,675	$1.18	23d	1	0.24mi
2343 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	23d	1	0.24mi
2335 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	4d	1	0.26mi
2330 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	4d	1	0.27mi
2318 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	23d	1	0.28mi
2307 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,750	$0.97	43d	1	0.31mi
10610 Apple Pie Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	23d	1	0.32mi
2235 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	43d	1	0.40mi
2230 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	23d	1	0.42mi
2226 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,650	$0.93	23d	1	0.43mi
10527 Hunters Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,395	$0.92	43d	1	0.47mi
10127 Texas 16 Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$807	$0.85	16d	1	0.54mi
10127 State Highway 16 S San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1125	$1,200	$1.07	2d	26	0.54mi
2115 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	43d	1	0.55mi
2107 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,675	$0.94	43d	1	0.57mi
10719 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,640	$1.00	43d	1	0.57mi
10723 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,675	$0.99	43d	1	0.57mi
2026 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1383	$1,650	$1.19	4d	1	0.58mi
11318 Clearmine St #101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,700	$1.25	12d	1	0.66mi
11318 Clearmine St Unit 104 South Southwest, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,700	$1.25	43d	1	0.66mi
11318 Clearmine St Unit 103 South Southwest, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,514	$1.11	43d	1	0.66mi
11326 Clearmine St Unit 104 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,614	$1.19	43d	1	0.68mi
11009 Valley Star Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.5	1004	$1,450	$1.44	4d	1	0.73mi
12305 SW Loop 410 San Antonio, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$1,318	$1.27	16d	1	0.77mi
3263 Rancho Grande San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	23d	1	0.78mi
11327 Clearmine San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,650	$1.21	1d	2	0.79mi
10414 Espada Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,600	$1.13	43d	1	0.97mi
3331 Rosita Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1848	$1,800	$0.97	43d	1	0.98mi
3411 Avoca Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,460	$1.02	4d	1	1.04mi
3411 Avoca Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,460	$1.02	17d	1	1.04mi
10210 S Zarzamora St San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1139	$1,460	$1.28	1d	1	1.11mi
3439 Twining Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,500	$1.33	17d	1	1.16mi
1451 Neria Loop Unit 3 San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1867	$700	$0.37	12d	1	1.17mi
10507 Padron Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	43d	1	1.17mi
10823 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	1d	1	1.18mi
10807 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,700	$1.08	16d	1	1.18mi
10815 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	23d	1	1.18mi
10611 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,735	$1.07	4d	1	1.20mi
10622 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,725	$1.06	4d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $239,990 Pending 447 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $239,990 Back on Market 447 DOM
3. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-16
   status Back on Market
5. 2025-11-17
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-07
   price $239,990
7. 2025-11-07
   status Back on Market
8. 2025-11-03
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-03
   status Back on Market
10. 2025-07-14
    status Pending
11. 2025-06-25
    price $234,990
12. 2025-06-17
    price $247,990
13. 2025-06-14
    price $243,990
14. 2025-04-11
    price $248,990
15. 2025-02-01
    price $253,990
16. 2024-11-13
    price $249,990
17. 2024-06-18
    price $253,990
18. 2024-05-14
    listed $259,536 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,646 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,646 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$4,646
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$9,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,235
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Pending — LERA
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-17 Pending — LERA
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $239,990 LERA
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-03 Pending — LERA
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-14 Pending — LERA
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $234,990 LERA
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $247,990 LERA
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $243,990 LERA
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $248,990 LERA
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $253,990 LERA
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $249,990 LERA
• 2024-06-18 Price Changed $253,990 LERA
• 2024-05-14 Listed $259,536 LERA

Property tax history

+160.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,646 · +603.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.