4815 Vise Rd

Pinson, AL 35126

$124,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,619 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $558/mo
• Annual: $6,698/yr
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.21%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $34,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $861 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pinson Elementary School (801 students, 54% FRL); Rudd Middle School (math 0% / reading 26%, grade F, #214 of 257 statewide, top 83%, 667 students, 61% FRL); Pinson Valley High School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #246 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,029 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 5.6% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.